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Tag Archives: Marco Rubio

Trump forecast to win general election: 97% chance.

17 Thursday Mar 2016

Posted by essaybee2012 in Donald Trump, Helmut Norpoth, presidential election forecast, Stony Brook University

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders, Bill Clinton, Christopher Cameron, Democrat Party, Donald Trump, electoral college vote, electoral cycle method, George Bush, Helmut Norpoth, Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio, political science, presidential election forecast, Republican Party, sbstatesman.com, Stony Brook Alumni Association, Stony Brook University, SUNY Global Center, Ted Cruz

Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner

THE STATESMAN

News

Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner

By Christopher Cameron / February 23, 2016

Stony Brook Helmut NorpothPolitical science professor Helmut Norpoth, above, moments after announcing his presidential election forecast at the SUNY Global Center on Feb. 22.  Norpoth’s findings with the electoral cycle method show the Republican Party having a 61 percent chance of winning the general election.  CHRISTOPHER CAMERON/THE STATESMAN

A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee.

Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.

Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.

Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth’s formula.

“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said, “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.”

Norpoth’s primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election.  These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent.

Norpoth began the presentation with an introduction of the potential matchups in the general election, including a hypothetical Sanders vs. Trump general election.

“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.”  Norpoth said referring to Trump and Sanders, as many alumni in the audience laughed.  “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”

As the presentation continued, laughter turned to silence as Norpoth forecasted a 61 percent chance of a Republican win in the general election.

This forecast was made using the electoral cycle model, which studies a pattern of voting in the presidential election that makes it less likely for an incumbent party to hold the presidency after two terms in office.  The model does not assume who would be the party nominees or the conditions of the country at the time.

“You think ‘This is crazy.  How can anything come up with something like that?’ ” Norpoth said, “  But that’s exactly the kind of equation I used to predict Bill Clinton winning in ‘96, that I used to predict that George Bush would win in 2004, and, as you remember four years ago, that Obama would win in 2012.”

Norpoth then added data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries to narrow down the forecast to specific candidates.  As he brought up the first slide with matchup results, the silence was broken by muttering from the audience.

“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent [of the popular vote].  This is almost too much to believe.”  Norpoth said, with a few members of the audience laughing nervously.  “The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent.  It’s almost ‘Take it to the bank.’ ”

The primary model predicts a Trump victory with such certainty due to Trump’s relatively high success in the Republican primaries, Norpoth said.  Clinton, in comparison, is in an essential tie with Sanders in the Democratic primaries.  As a result, Sanders would also lose to Trump in a similar landslide if Sanders were to be the Democratic nominee, Norpoth said.

In contrast, Norpoth forecasted that a hypothetical presidential race with Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio on the Republican ticket would be a much closer race.  The results showed Clinton with a 55 percent chance of winning the race against Cruz or Rubio with a 0.3 percent lead in the popular vote.

Norpoth’s model showed Sanders losing against Rubio or Cruz with a 0.6 percent gap in the popular vote, giving a Rubio or Cruz ticket a 60 percent chance of winning against the Vermont senator.

Norpoth added that while the non-Trump Republican ticket would be much more unlikely to win the general election due to differences in the popular vote and the electoral college vote, there is almost no chance that Trump would lose the electoral college vote with his forecasted lead in the popular vote.

“If you win by 54 percent [of the popular vote], you have a big majority in the electoral college,” Norpoth said.  “Nobody who has ever gotten 54 percent has lost.”

Featured Image Credit: GAGE SKIDMORE/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

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Why position matters in national, Iowa and New Hampshire polls

10 Sunday Jan 2016

Posted by essaybee2012 in Donald Trump, electoral history, polling data, Princeton Election Corsortium, Sam Wang

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Al Gore, Chris Cillizza, Democrats, Donald Trump, electoral history, George W. Bush, GOP nominee, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, John Kerry, Marco Rubio, polling data, presidential race, Princeton Election Consortium, Republicans, Sam Wang, science, Ted Cruz, The Fix, WashingtonPost.com

WashingtonPost.com
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/09/still-dont-think-donald-trump-can-win-this-chart-should-convince-you/
 ~
The Fix

Still don’t think Donald Trump can win?  This chart should convince you.

By Chris Cillizza January 9
 
Yes, this man could be the Republican presidential nominee.  REUTERS/Brian Snyder/Files

~

When people find out I am a political reporter, they usually have only one question for me:  “Donald Trump can’t really win this thing, can he?”  My answer is always the same these days:  Absolutely he can.

The reason is simple:  Trump is the national front-runner, yes, but he is also ahead in a two key early states — New Hampshire and South Carolina — and a strong second in Iowa, the state that kicks the whole presidential process off on Feb. 1.

Could he totally collapse from that position?  Sure.  As we know from recent history, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire don’t start paying all that close attention to the race until about 30 days or so out from the actual vote — meaning that polling on what the race looks like tends to be an inexact science.

But the fact that Trump is ahead nationally and that he is running first or second in Iowa and New Hampshire is meaningful, argues Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium.

Wang’s argument is that based on recent electoral history and where Trump stands in polling today, the real estate billionaire actually has a very good chance at being the Republican nominee.  Look at where the past nominees in each party were at this time in national, Iowa and New Hampshire polling:

Screen Shot 2016-01-07 at 12.31.33 PM

Sure, there’s John Kerry, who was fourth nationally and third in Iowa at this point but went on to win both of the first two states and quickly wrap up the nomination.  But the overall trend is clear; running first nationally and standing in either first or second place in Iowa and New Hampshire tends to be a very good predictor of your chances at being the nominee.

Here’s Wang’s chart with Trump’s current standing factored in:

Screen Shot 2016-01-07 at 12.32.04 PM

“This emphasizes the fact that based on polling data, Donald Trump is in as strong a position to get his party’s nomination as Hillary Clinton in 2016, George W. Bush in 2000, or Al Gore in 2000,” writes Wang.  (The bolding is his, not mine.)  “The one case in which a lead of this size was reversed was the 2008 Democratic nomination, which very was closely fought.”

It’s important to remember that Wang isn’t saying that Trump will be the Republican nominee.  What he’s saying is that Trump has a pretty damn good chance at being the GOP nominee — if past is prologue.

How Donald Trump turns hecklers into an advantage

Play Video1:38

[For video, please see: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/09/still-dont-think-donald-trump-can-win-this-chart-should-convince-you/%5D
 ~
Hecklers are common at political rallies, but Donald Trump knows how to use them to fire up his audience.  (Peter Stevenson/The Washington Post)

The simple fact is that it is difficult to fall from the lofty perch that Trump currently occupies fast enough to not have a real chance at the nomination.  Just one month from now, the Iowa and New Hampshire votes will have already happened!

Barring some sort of massive flub or campaign catastrophe — and it’s hard to imagine what would even fit that description when it comes to Trump — The Donald will be in the mix when the nomination gets decided.

And, if you’re wondering where Trump’s rivals for the nomination fit in Wang’s calculations, the only one who comes close to the reality star is Ted Cruz, who is second nationally, first in Iowa and third in New Hampshire.  Marco Rubio, widely seen as the establishment front-runner at this point, is third nationally, third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire.  Jeb(!) Bush?  Fifth nationally, sixth in Iowa and sixth in New Hampshire.

The race might not be Trump’s to lose just yet.  But it’s starting to get very late for him to collapse.

Chris Cillizza writes “The Fix,” a politics blog for the Washington Post.  He also covers the White House.

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Why Trump?

17 Thursday Sep 2015

Posted by essaybee2012 in 2016 American Election, Donald Trump, GOP

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Al Gore, America, American workers, Ben Carson, Black vote, Conservatives, Democrats, demographics, Donald Trump, FOX News Channel, Franklin D. Roosevelt, George W. Bush, Glenn Beck, GOP, Hillary Clinton, immigration, independents, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Matt Walsh, Populists, Rand Paul, Republicans, Scott Morefield, Ted Cruz, TheBlaze.com, Third Worlders, trade, Washington elite, YouGov/CBS News Battleground Tracker

TheBlaze.com

http://www.theblaze.com/contributions/donald-trump-gives-us-a-fighting-chance/

Donald Trump Gives Us a Fighting Chance

Sep. 17, 2015 10:00am

Scott Morefield – TheBlaze Contributor

Scott Morefield

A Christian husband of one and father of four, Scott Morefield’s articles have also appeared on WND, Natural News, and many other sites, including AMorefieldLife.com, where he and his wife, Kim, share their marriage and parenting journey.  Follow him on Twitter @SKMorefield.

The most recent YouGov/CBS News Battleground Tracker shows Donald Trump with a four point lead over fellow outsider Ben Carson in Iowa and commanding, double-digit leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Instead of underestimating his candidacy, the hand-wringing talking-heads and Republican leaders are beginning to consider the real possibility that Trump very well could be the Republican nominee.

Meanwhile, his supporters are still considered by the “intellectual crowd” as little more than knuckle dragging, uneducated, pitchfork toting, personality-cult following populists hellbent on putting their guy in the White House no matter what.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The fact that Trump’s base keeps growing, however, casts doubt on the caricature.

Take me, for example.  I’ve followed politics my entire adult life, and consider myself as “conservative” as they come.  I fully understand the nuances of the anti-Trump argument.  I’ve read plenty of articles purporting to convince me that supporting Donald Trump is not only a bad idea, but apparently makes me a terrible person as well (or something like that).

Like anyone who loves this country, I’ve sadly watched America fall farther and farther into the abyss with scant chance of reemerging.  Lately it seems as if it really doesn’t matter who occupies the White House – things remain the same.  I voted for George W. Bush twice only to see him let us down time and time again.  And don’t even get me started on this Republican Congress that was supposed to take a stand.  Our country is becoming an unrecognizable place to what it was 20 years ago, and I can’t imagine what it will be like in another 20, if it’s here at all.

This election cycle, I’ve watched a strong Republican field, perhaps the strongest in recent history, with much interest.  Can one of them win and begin to right the ship?

When Donald Trump began his campaign, I liked what he had to say but I was skeptical.  Would he stick to his guns?  Would the slightest misstep doom his campaign?  Yet, like a Teflon Don, he’s managed to weasel out of trouble time and time again and gain more and more support all the while.

Can Donald Trump turn this ship around?  I don’t know, but I do know that more experienced and “ideologically pure” politicians have had their hands on the reins for the duration of this collapse.  Why should I trust more of them?

Sure, I understand all of the issues Glenn Beck, Matt Walsh, and the talking heads on FoxNews have written and spoken about Donald Trump.  Sure, maybe he’s a narcissistic, pompous, egomaniac blowhard.  Yes, he relentlessly attacks people who criticize him to assuage his fragile ego.  Indeed, he often says stupid things that reveal his lack of depth on some issues and, frankly, don’t always make sense.  Maybe he’s held every position on every issue under the sun (except trade, which he has been refreshingly consistent on) and likely is only running for president so he can attach a Trump logo on the side of the White House.

All that may very well be true, but you know what?

I don’t care.

Excoriate me all you want, but I’m finished voting for traditional politicians.  We’ve tried that, over and over again, to no avail.  Sure, from a purely ideological standpoint I like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul better.  They are fantastic candidates and they seem like good, genuine people.  Maybe they’d do great.

Problem is, they can’t win.  At least not in today’s America.  I don’t think people realize just how far we’re gone.  We are at a place demographically and ideologically where it’s become very difficult, if not impossible, for a Republican candidate to win a national election.  The Democrats could run a scandal-ridden Hillary Clinton, an old and fat Al Gore, or the bones of Franklin D. Roosevelt and they’d all beat any career politician we decide to trot out, likely in a landslide.

To do this, all they really have to do is keep Florida, and, given the demographic changes there that have taken place over the past decade, even if Republicans choose a Floridian like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio it won’t be all that hard.

This year we’ve got to do something different to have a chance.  Thankfully, “different” has presented itself in the form of a bombastic, iconic, billionaire from Queens known for brilliant business moves and firing people on live television.

What American voter, after all, doesn’t want to just up and fire the entire Washington elite?

The awesome thing is, Donald Trump can win.  He has shown it by maintaining and increasing his support week after week.  He can garner a higher percentage of the Black vote than any Republican in modern history.  He can appeal to moderates.  He can sway independents and even attract a few Democrats.  If Trump can get past the GOP field, I’m convinced he can win the general election in one of the last election cycles where Republicans have a snowball’s chance.

And if he does win, what he has promised to do could very well give us at least a fighting chance going forward.

None of us will ever agree with every candidate on every issue.  That said, there are two issues which are absolutely critical to the future of this country – immigration, because our policy of allowing unlimited, unskilled, and generally unassimilable Third Worlders will bankrupt us and irreversibly destroy us as a cohesive society; and trade, because when the playing field isn’t level American workers suffer in a big way.  If we don’t start MAKING things again our country will be economically doomed.

Guess what?  Trump is fantastic on both of those issues.  He and I may disagree on plenty of other things, but if he even BEGINS to fix those two issues, particularly and most importantly immigration, our ship could very well begin to head in the right direction.  At that point, maybe, we’ll still have a country left to save.

We can argue about all the other stuff then.

–

TheBlaze contributor channel supports an open discourse on a range of views.  The opinions expressed in this channel are solely those of each individual author.

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